Engine live0 active · 0 matches · — avg value

Football value bets. Scanned in real time.

The fair price is the margin-free median of all tracked bookmakers. A value bet is the best price at a bookmaker available to you that beats it by 5–30%, on an outcome with a fair probability of at least 50%. One signal per match.

Active value bets
0
Matches
0
Avg value
—
Rule
5–30%
above fair price, p ≥ 50%

A value bet is the best price at a bookmaker available to you that is 5–30% above the fair price (the margin-free median of all tracked bookmakers; the median includes bookmakers we don't list), on an outcome with a fair probability of at least 50%. Its settled record counts every price that passed the rule at the moment it was found. The official track record counts one pick per match at the price of the analysis, so the two ROI figures differ. See the methodology.

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No value bets match these filters right now

Right now there is no price 5–30% above the fair price on an outcome with a fair probability of at least 50%. Try widening the filters above or check back later — the list refreshes every 30 minutes.

Settled record · current model

n = 39Sep 3, 2026 – Nov 5, 2026
Settled bets
39
24W–15L–1V · 36 matches
Win rate
61.5%
95% CI 45.9–75.1%
ROI (flat)
+6.2%
95% CI -22.1% to 34.5%
Profit
+€24.30
flat €10/signal

At 39 settled bets, the 95% confidence interval on ROI runs from -22.1% to 34.5% — it covers both a losing and a profitable strategy. This result is not yet a verdict on whether the Value Engine has an edge; it is an honest count of what has happened so far.

Up to three signals can come from the same match, so the bets are not fully independent and the real uncertainty is larger than the interval suggests.

Every signal here is settled as a flat €10 stake against the price quoted when it was issued, graded automatically off the 90-minute result. Void bets (cancelled or abandoned matches) and pushes return the stake and are excluded from ROI and win rate (shown separately: 0 push, 1 void).

By market
Match Winnern = 28 · small sample+7.3%
18W–10L · +€20.60
Over/Under 2.5n = 6 · small sample+51.3%
5W–1L · +€30.80
Both Teams To Scoren = 5 · small sample-54.2%
1W–4L · −€27.10
Cumulative profit
−€20€0+€59+€2410-1010-1610-2010-2210-2811-0511-05
Archive · Retired model (blend), until 2 Oct 2026

Before 2 October 2026 the probability was 53% market and 47% Poisson model. These results are kept for history and do not describe the current method.

Bets 199 (123 matches)76W–123LWin rate 38.2%ROI -7.9% (95% CI -25.4% to 9.6%)Profit −€156.90
−€298€0+€160−€15709-0309-1209-1309-1709-1909-2010-04
Match Winner: 99 bets, -1.7% ROI · Over/Under 2.5: 72 bets, -16.9% ROI · Both Teams To Score: 28 bets, -6.8% ROI
Recent settled betsmost recent 20 · UTC
TimeMatchOddsValueProfitResult
Nov 52W–3L · −€17.20
11:04 PM
CelticCelticvsBeşiktaşBeşiktaş
Over/Under 2.5 · Over 2.5 · UEFA Europa League
1.67+7.9%+€6.70Won
08:50 PM
AC MilanAC MilanvsFerencvarosi TCFerencvarosi TC
Match Winner · Home · UEFA Europa League
1.45+5.3%−€10.00Lost
08:50 PM
Levski SofiaLevski SofiavsJagielloniaJagiellonia
Both Teams To Score · Yes · UEFA Europa League
2.04+9.0%−€10.00Lost
07:50 PM
Real SociedadReal SociedadvsLyonLyon
Match Winner · Home · UEFA Europa League
1.85+6.2%−€10.00Lost
07:50 PM
Sparta PrahaSparta PrahavsBournemouthBournemouth
Match Winner · Away · UEFA Europa League
1.61+9.6%+€6.10Won
11:04 PMWon
CelticCelticvsBeşiktaşBeşiktaş
Over/Under 2.5 · Over 2.5 · UEFA Europa League
Odds1.67
Value+7.9%
Profit+€6.70
08:50 PMLost
AC MilanAC MilanvsFerencvarosi TCFerencvarosi TC
Match Winner · Home · UEFA Europa League
Odds1.45
Value+5.3%
Profit−€10.00
08:50 PMLost
Levski SofiaLevski SofiavsJagielloniaJagiellonia
Both Teams To Score · Yes · UEFA Europa League
Odds2.04
Value+9.0%
Profit−€10.00
07:50 PMLost
Real SociedadReal SociedadvsLyonLyon
Match Winner · Home · UEFA Europa League
Odds1.85
Value+6.2%
Profit−€10.00
07:50 PMWon
Sparta PrahaSparta PrahavsBournemouthBournemouth
Match Winner · Away · UEFA Europa League
Odds1.61
Value+9.6%
Profit+€6.10
Nov 41W–1L · −€5.20
10:50 PM
VikingVikingvsSabah FASabah FA
Match Winner · Home · UEFA Champions League
1.48+6.6%+€4.80Won
07:50 PM
FenerbahçeFenerbahçevsLiverpoolLiverpool
Match Winner · Away · UEFA Champions League
1.55+5.6%−€10.00Lost
10:50 PMWon
VikingVikingvsSabah FASabah FA
Match Winner · Home · UEFA Champions League
Odds1.48
Value+6.6%
Profit+€4.80
07:50 PMLost
FenerbahçeFenerbahçevsLiverpoolLiverpool
Match Winner · Away · UEFA Champions League
Odds1.55
Value+5.6%
Profit−€10.00
Nov 31W–0L · +€7.90
10:50 PM
VillarrealVillarrealvsParis Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
Match Winner · Away · UEFA Champions League
1.79+6.0%+€7.90Won
10:50 PMWon
VillarrealVillarrealvsParis Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
Match Winner · Away · UEFA Champions League
Odds1.79
Value+6.0%
Profit+€7.90
Oct 311W–1L · −€0.10
05:50 PM
Manchester CityManchester CityvsBrightonBrighton
Match Winner · Home · Premier League
1.83+5.1%−€10.00Lost
02:50 PM
ChelseaChelseavsManchester UnitedManchester United
Match Winner · Home · Premier League
1.99+5.7%+€9.90Won
05:50 PMLost
Manchester CityManchester CityvsBrightonBrighton
Match Winner · Home · Premier League
Odds1.83
Value+5.1%
Profit−€10.00
02:50 PMWon
ChelseaChelseavsManchester UnitedManchester United
Match Winner · Home · Premier League
Odds1.99
Value+5.7%
Profit+€9.90
Oct 281W–0L · +€10.50
07:50 PM
AC MilanAC MilanvsBolognaBologna
Over/Under 2.5 · Over 2.5 · Serie A
2.05+6.1%+€10.50Won
07:50 PMWon
AC MilanAC MilanvsBolognaBologna
Over/Under 2.5 · Over 2.5 · Serie A
Odds2.05
Value+6.1%
Profit+€10.50
Oct 271W–0L · +€4.50
09:53 PM
AS RomaAS RomavsCagliariCagliari
Match Winner · Home · Serie A
1.45+7.7%+€4.50Won
09:53 PMWon
AS RomaAS RomavsCagliariCagliari
Match Winner · Home · Serie A
Odds1.45
Value+7.7%
Profit+€4.50
Oct 251W–1L · −€1.40
10:50 PM
UdineseUdinesevsAC MilanAC Milan
Match Winner · Away · Serie A
1.86+5.9%+€8.60Won
06:50 PM
RennesRennesvsStrasbourgStrasbourg
Both Teams To Score · Yes · Ligue 1
1.61+6.8%−€10.00Lost
10:50 PMWon
UdineseUdinesevsAC MilanAC Milan
Match Winner · Away · Serie A
Odds1.86
Value+5.9%
Profit+€8.60
06:50 PMLost
RennesRennesvsStrasbourgStrasbourg
Both Teams To Score · Yes · Ligue 1
Odds1.61
Value+6.8%
Profit−€10.00
Oct 242W–1L · +€3.40
06:51 PM
ChelseaChelseavsTottenhamTottenham
Match Winner · Home · Premier League
1.98+5.5%−€10.00Lost
03:51 PM
CagliariCagliarivsBolognaBologna
Over/Under 2.5 · Under 2.5 · Serie A
1.77+5.3%+€7.70Won
03:51 PM
RB LeipzigRB LeipzigvsSV ElversbergSV Elversberg
Match Winner · Home · Bundesliga
1.57+8.3%+€5.70Won
06:51 PMLost
ChelseaChelseavsTottenhamTottenham
Match Winner · Home · Premier League
Odds1.98
Value+5.5%
Profit−€10.00
03:51 PMWon
CagliariCagliarivsBolognaBologna
Over/Under 2.5 · Under 2.5 · Serie A
Odds1.77
Value+5.3%
Profit+€7.70
03:51 PMWon
RB LeipzigRB LeipzigvsSV ElversbergSV Elversberg
Match Winner · Home · Bundesliga
Odds1.57
Value+8.3%
Profit+€5.70
Oct 221W–2L · −€8.60
09:04 PM
CeljeCeljevsRed Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg
Match Winner · Away · UEFA Europa League
1.68+8.1%−€10.00Lost
09:04 PM
BournemouthBournemouthvsAC MilanAC Milan
Match Winner · Home · UEFA Europa League
2.14+10.0%+€11.40Won
07:53 PM
JuventusJuventusvsRennesRennes
Match Winner · Home · UEFA Europa League
1.57+6.0%−€10.00Lost
09:04 PMLost
CeljeCeljevsRed Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg
Match Winner · Away · UEFA Europa League
Odds1.68
Value+8.1%
Profit−€10.00
09:04 PMWon
BournemouthBournemouthvsAC MilanAC Milan
Match Winner · Home · UEFA Europa League
Odds2.14
Value+10.0%
Profit+€11.40
07:53 PMLost
JuventusJuventusvsRennesRennes
Match Winner · Home · UEFA Europa League
Odds1.57
Value+6.0%
Profit−€10.00
This record counts every price that passed the value rule when it was found. The official picks, one per match at the analysis price, are in the official track record — its ROI differs for that reason.

What is a value bet?

A value bet exists when a bookmaker's price is higher than the fair price of that outcome. The Value Engine scans pre-match prices across tracked bookmakers and reports the gap between the best available price and the fair price as a value percentage.

How the fair odds are derived

For each outcome we take the prices of every bookmaker we track (at least four), remove each bookmaker's margin and take the median. That median is the fair probability, and 1 ÷ probability is the fair price. The median includes bookmakers we don't list on the site; a bet is only offered at bookmakers available to you. The fair price is an estimate of what the market thinks, not a guarantee.

Why one signal per match

A single fixture can generate several signals across different markets and bookmakers. This page shows only the strongest one per match to keep the list readable — every other signal for that fixture is linked from its card and listed on the match page itself.

Why prices more than 30% above fair are not listed

A gap that large is more often a stale price or a data error than a real mispricing, so such prices are not published as value bets.

Limitations

The engine covers three markets — Match Winner, Both Teams To Score, and Total Over/Under 2.5. The sample of live signals at any moment is small, and its settled track record further down this page is still a small sample too — ROI is shown only from 30 settled bets, with its confidence interval. Results before 2 October 2026 come from a retired model and are kept as an archive.

Odds and value estimates change constantly and can be wrong. Always gamble responsibly. 18+.