Home Football Odds Odds History
Football odds history. Did the closing line know? 780 completed matches with a full opening-to-closing line across 8 bookmakers. We track where the money moved and whether it matched the result.
57.4% closing
Against 57.1% at opening — closing is sharper by +0.3 pp . Sample 4,337.
Matches in archive
794
all with a final score
Full line
780
98.2% coverage
Step-by-step history
767
chart available
Closing accuracy
57.4%
vs 57.1% opening
Favourite flips
5.3%
229 of 4,337 matches
7 days40 30 days155 90 days668 All-time3,534 matches with step-by-step history in period
Does the Line Predict the Result? sample 4,337 Last 90 days · Match Winner Closing favourite won 57.4%
2489 hits out of 4337 Opening favourite won 57.1%
same sample at line opening Closing and opening are practically equal — +0.3 pp . On this sample the line barely sharpens: the favourite only manages to flip in 5.3% of matches (229 of 4,337). The line sharpens rather than flips.
Line moved DOWN on the favourite 57.3%
2182 cases — odds dropped, money came in Line moved UP on the favourite 56.3%
1381 cases — odds rose, the market drifted away The gap between falling and rising lines is only 1.0 pp . Drift direction is a weak signal on its own. Bookmaker choice matters far more: accuracy spread between books runs up to 7 pp →
1X2 Match WinnerO/U Total 2.5BTTS Both to ScoreAH Asian Handicap
Sort By date By drift Line misses
120 entries Date League Match · Score Opening → Closing Favourite Hit / Miss
05.11 UEL 2.20 → 2.21 ▲0.5%
2 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 2.18 → 2.20 ▲0.9%
2 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 2.23 → 2.24 ▲0.4%
2 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 2.26 → 2.15 ▼5.0%
2 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 2.31 → 2.28 ▼1.4%
2 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 2.26 → 2.15 ▼5.0%
2 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.45 → 1.45 ·0.0%
1 ✗ Miss Line movement · Sunderland 5 snapshots · 1 books 05.11 · final score 0:2 1.40 1.47 1.54 KO 1.44 −2d −7h −2h hollow dot — opening, filled — closing
05.11 UEL 1.48 → 1.45 ▼2.0%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.47 → 1.47 ·0.0%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.44 → 1.52 ▲5.9%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.47 → 1.55 ▲5.4%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.44 → 1.52 ▲5.9%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.56 → 1.52 ▼2.6%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.57 → 1.51 ▼3.8%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.58 → 1.54 ▼2.5%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.55 → 1.54 ▼0.9%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.58 → 1.55 ▼2.0%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.55 → 1.54 ▼0.9%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 2.17 → 2.36 ▲8.8%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 2.24 → 2.44 ▲8.9%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 2.20 → 2.39 ▲8.6%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 2.07 → 2.26 ▲9.4%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 2.11 → 2.29 ▲8.5%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 2.07 → 2.26 ▲9.4%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.74 → 1.71 ▼1.7%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.81 → 1.71 ▼5.5%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.76 → 1.73 ▼1.7%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.73 → 1.70 ▼1.7%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.76 → 1.72 ▼2.5%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.73 → 1.70 ▼1.7%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.20 → 1.13 ▼5.8%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.17 → 1.13 ▼3.4%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.22 → 1.14 ▼6.6%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.22 → 1.18 ▼3.3%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.24 → 1.19 ▼3.9%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.22 → 1.18 ▼3.3%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 2.15 → 2.12 ▼1.4%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 2.12 → 2.16 ▲1.9%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 2.18 → 2.15 ▼1.4%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 2.14 → 2.06 ▼3.6%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 2.18 → 2.08 ▼4.6%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 2.14 → 2.06 ▼3.6%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.43 → 1.31 ▼8.4%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.42 → 1.31 ▼7.7%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.45 → 1.31 ▼9.7%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.42 → 1.41 ▼0.7%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.45 → 1.43 ▼1.7%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.42 → 1.41 ▼0.7%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.93 → 1.97 ▲2.1%
2 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.99 → 2.04 ▲2.5%
2 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.96 → 1.99 ▲1.5%
2 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.92 → 1.98 ▲3.4%
2 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.96 → 2.00 ▲2.1%
2 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.92 → 1.98 ▲3.4%
2 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.77 → 1.77 ·0.0%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.82 → 1.76 ▼3.3%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.79 → 1.79 ·0.0%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.75 → 1.60 ▼8.8%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.79 → 1.62 ▼9.9%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.75 → 1.60 ▼8.8%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.54 → 1.40 ▼9.1%
2 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.51 → 1.40 ▼7.3%
2 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.56 → 1.42 ▼9.0%
2 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.53 → 1.60 ▲4.9%
2 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.56 → 1.62 ▲3.6%
2 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.53 → 1.60 ▲4.9%
2 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.34 → 1.37 ▲2.2%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.34 → 1.37 ▲2.2%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.36 → 1.37 ▲0.7%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.33 → 1.43 ▲7.7%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.36 → 1.45 ▲6.6%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.33 → 1.43 ▲7.7%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.88 → 1.59 ▼15.4%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.87 → 1.85 ▼1.1%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.91 → 1.61 ▼15.7%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.87 → 1.70 ▼8.9%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.91 → 1.73 ▼9.5%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.87 → 1.70 ▼8.9%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.92 → 1.79 ▼6.8%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.99 → 1.80 ▼9.5%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.95 → 1.81 ▼7.2%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.91 → 1.82 ▼4.7%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.95 → 1.84 ▼5.6%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 1.91 → 1.82 ▼4.7%
1 ✗ Miss 05.11 UEL 2.29 → 2.29 ·0.0%
2 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 2.32 → 2.27 ▼2.2%
2 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 2.32 → 2.32 ·0.0%
2 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 2.36 → 2.02 ▼14.4%
2 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 2.41 → 2.04 ▼15.4%
2 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 2.36 → 2.02 ▼14.4%
2 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.90 → 2.01 ▲5.8%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.98 → 2.07 ▲4.5%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.93 → 2.04 ▲5.7%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.89 → 1.94 ▲2.6%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.93 → 1.96 ▲1.7%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.89 → 1.94 ▲2.6%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.97 → 2.03 ▲3.0%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 2.06 → 2.04 ▼1.0%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 2.00 → 2.06 ▲3.0%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.96 → 1.88 ▼4.1%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 2.00 → 1.90 ▼5.1%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL 1.96 → 1.88 ▼4.1%
1 ✓ Hit 04.11 UCL 2.00 → 1.99 ▼0.5%
1 ✓ Hit 04.11 UCL 2.03 → 1.99 ▼2.0%
1 ✓ Hit 04.11 UCL 2.06 → 2.02 ▼1.9%
1 ✓ Hit 04.11 UCL 2.23 → 1.99 ▼10.8%
1 ✓ Hit 04.11 UCL 2.31 → 2.01 ▼13.0%
1 ✓ Hit 04.11 UCL 2.23 → 1.99 ▼10.8%
1 ✓ Hit 04.11 UCL 1.29 → 1.23 ▼4.7%
2 ✓ Hit 04.11 UCL 1.29 → 1.24 ▼3.9%
2 ✓ Hit 04.11 UCL 1.32 → 1.25 ▼5.3%
2 ✓ Hit 04.11 UCL 1.30 → 1.24 ▼4.9%
2 ✓ Hit 04.11 UCL 1.35 → 1.25 ▼7.2%
2 ✓ Hit 04.11 UCL 1.30 → 1.24 ▼4.9%
2 ✓ Hit 04.11 UCL 1.41 → 1.44 ▲2.1%
1 ✓ Hit 04.11 UCL 1.43 → 1.49 ▲4.2%
1 ✓ Hit 04.11 UCL 1.45 → 1.48 ▲2.1%
1 ✓ Hit 04.11 UCL 1.48 → 1.58 ▲7.1%
1 ✓ Hit 04.11 UCL 1.53 → 1.59 ▲4.2%
1 ✓ Hit 04.11 UCL 1.48 → 1.58 ▲7.1%
1 ✓ Hit 05.11 UEL ✗ Miss
2 2.20 → 2.21 ▲0.5%
05.11 UEL ✗ Miss
2 2.18 → 2.20 ▲0.9%
05.11 UEL ✗ Miss
2 2.23 → 2.24 ▲0.4%
05.11 UEL ✗ Miss
2 2.26 → 2.15 ▼5.0%
05.11 UEL ✗ Miss
2 2.31 → 2.28 ▼1.4%
05.11 UEL ✗ Miss
2 2.26 → 2.15 ▼5.0%
1 1.45 → 1.45 ·0.0%
Line movement · Sunderland 5 snapshots · 1 books 05.11 · final score 0:2 1.40 1.47 1.54 KO 1.44 −2d −7h −2h hollow dot — opening, filled — closing
1 1.48 → 1.45 ▼2.0%
1 1.47 → 1.47 ·0.0%
1 1.44 → 1.52 ▲5.9%
1 1.47 → 1.55 ▲5.4%
1 1.44 → 1.52 ▲5.9%
1 1.56 → 1.52 ▼2.6%
1 1.57 → 1.51 ▼3.8%
1 1.58 → 1.54 ▼2.5%
1 1.55 → 1.54 ▼0.9%
1 1.58 → 1.55 ▼2.0%
1 1.55 → 1.54 ▼0.9%
1 2.17 → 2.36 ▲8.8%
1 2.24 → 2.44 ▲8.9%
1 2.20 → 2.39 ▲8.6%
1 2.07 → 2.26 ▲9.4%
1 2.11 → 2.29 ▲8.5%
1 2.07 → 2.26 ▲9.4%
1 1.74 → 1.71 ▼1.7%
1 1.81 → 1.71 ▼5.5%
1 1.76 → 1.73 ▼1.7%
1 1.73 → 1.70 ▼1.7%
1 1.76 → 1.72 ▼2.5%
1 1.73 → 1.70 ▼1.7%
1 1.20 → 1.13 ▼5.8%
1 1.17 → 1.13 ▼3.4%
1 1.22 → 1.14 ▼6.6%
1 1.22 → 1.18 ▼3.3%
1 1.24 → 1.19 ▼3.9%
1 1.22 → 1.18 ▼3.3%
1 2.15 → 2.12 ▼1.4%
1 2.12 → 2.16 ▲1.9%
1 2.18 → 2.15 ▼1.4%
1 2.14 → 2.06 ▼3.6%
1 2.18 → 2.08 ▼4.6%
1 2.14 → 2.06 ▼3.6%
1 1.43 → 1.31 ▼8.4%
1 1.42 → 1.31 ▼7.7%
1 1.45 → 1.31 ▼9.7%
1 1.42 → 1.41 ▼0.7%
1 1.45 → 1.43 ▼1.7%
1 1.42 → 1.41 ▼0.7%
2 1.93 → 1.97 ▲2.1%
2 1.99 → 2.04 ▲2.5%
2 1.96 → 1.99 ▲1.5%
2 1.92 → 1.98 ▲3.4%
2 1.96 → 2.00 ▲2.1%
2 1.92 → 1.98 ▲3.4%
1 1.77 → 1.77 ·0.0%
1 1.82 → 1.76 ▼3.3%
1 1.79 → 1.79 ·0.0%
1 1.75 → 1.60 ▼8.8%
1 1.79 → 1.62 ▼9.9%
1 1.75 → 1.60 ▼8.8%
2 1.54 → 1.40 ▼9.1%
2 1.51 → 1.40 ▼7.3%
2 1.56 → 1.42 ▼9.0%
2 1.53 → 1.60 ▲4.9%
2 1.56 → 1.62 ▲3.6%
2 1.53 → 1.60 ▲4.9%
1 1.34 → 1.37 ▲2.2%
1 1.34 → 1.37 ▲2.2%
1 1.36 → 1.37 ▲0.7%
1 1.33 → 1.43 ▲7.7%
1 1.36 → 1.45 ▲6.6%
1 1.33 → 1.43 ▲7.7%
1 1.88 → 1.59 ▼15.4%
1 1.87 → 1.85 ▼1.1%
1 1.91 → 1.61 ▼15.7%
1 1.87 → 1.70 ▼8.9%
1 1.91 → 1.73 ▼9.5%
1 1.87 → 1.70 ▼8.9%
1 1.92 → 1.79 ▼6.8%
1 1.99 → 1.80 ▼9.5%
1 1.95 → 1.81 ▼7.2%
1 1.91 → 1.82 ▼4.7%
1 1.95 → 1.84 ▼5.6%
1 1.91 → 1.82 ▼4.7%
2 2.29 → 2.29 ·0.0%
2 2.32 → 2.27 ▼2.2%
2 2.32 → 2.32 ·0.0%
2 2.36 → 2.02 ▼14.4%
2 2.41 → 2.04 ▼15.4%
2 2.36 → 2.02 ▼14.4%
1 1.90 → 2.01 ▲5.8%
1 1.98 → 2.07 ▲4.5%
1 1.93 → 2.04 ▲5.7%
1 1.89 → 1.94 ▲2.6%
1 1.93 → 1.96 ▲1.7%
1 1.89 → 1.94 ▲2.6%
1 1.97 → 2.03 ▲3.0%
1 2.06 → 2.04 ▼1.0%
1 2.00 → 2.06 ▲3.0%
1 1.96 → 1.88 ▼4.1%
1 2.00 → 1.90 ▼5.1%
1 1.96 → 1.88 ▼4.1%
1 2.00 → 1.99 ▼0.5%
1 2.03 → 1.99 ▼2.0%
1 2.06 → 2.02 ▼1.9%
1 2.23 → 1.99 ▼10.8%
1 2.31 → 2.01 ▼13.0%
1 2.23 → 1.99 ▼10.8%
2 1.29 → 1.23 ▼4.7%
2 1.29 → 1.24 ▼3.9%
2 1.32 → 1.25 ▼5.3%
2 1.30 → 1.24 ▼4.9%
2 1.35 → 1.25 ▼7.2%
2 1.30 → 1.24 ▼4.9%
1 1.41 → 1.44 ▲2.1%
1 1.43 → 1.49 ▲4.2%
1 1.45 → 1.48 ▲2.1%
1 1.48 → 1.58 ▲7.1%
1 1.53 → 1.59 ▲4.2%
1 1.48 → 1.58 ▲7.1%
Show more · 780 matches with a line total → Biggest Moves 90 days drift above 30% is rare — worth a closer look
Date League Match · Score Opening → Closing Favourite Hit / Miss
20.10 UCL 1.05 → 2.43 ▲131.4%
1 ✓ Hit 06.09 EPL 17.50 → 1.90 ▼89.1%
2 ✗ Miss 18.10 LL 5.38 → 1.29 ▼76.0%
1 ✓ Hit 23.08 L1 6.14 → 1.49 ▼75.7%
2 ✗ Miss 10.10 LL 4.56 → 1.41 ▼69.1%
1 ✓ Hit 20.10 UCL 3.01 → 1.26 ▼58.1%
1 ✗ Miss 25.08 LL 2.77 → 1.18 ▼57.4%
1 ✗ Miss 03.09 LL 3.31 → 1.46 ▼55.9%
2 ✗ Miss 20.10 UCL ✓ Hit
1 1.05 → 2.43 ▲131.4%
06.09 EPL ✗ Miss
2 17.50 → 1.90 ▼89.1%
1 5.38 → 1.29 ▼76.0%
23.08 L1 ✗ Miss
2 6.14 → 1.49 ▼75.7%
1 4.56 → 1.41 ▼69.1%
20.10 UCL ✗ Miss
1 3.01 → 1.26 ▼58.1%
25.08 LL ✗ Miss
1 2.77 → 1.18 ▼57.4%
03.09 LL ✗ Miss
2 3.31 → 1.46 ▼55.9%
Bookmaker Sharpness 30d · 1X2 1 888SPORT 60.8%
sample 102 drift 4.1%
2 DAFABET 58.9%
sample 545 drift 3.0%
3 1XBET 57.7%
sample 780 drift 5.3%
4 MARATHONBET 57.5%
sample 779 drift 5.1%
5 BETWINNER 57.1%
sample 643 drift 7.5%
6 MELBET 57.1%
sample 643 drift 7.5%
All 8 bookmakers → Closing favourite
The outcome with the lowest odds at kickoff.
Accuracy
Share of matches where the closing favourite matched the actual result.
Drift
Change in odds from opening to closing, in percent.
Archive depth
Step-by-step snapshots since 08.08. Opening/closing pairs cover the full period.
A step-by-step chart is available for 767 matches out of 794 — such rows are marked with a ⚡ icon.
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